Opportunities for agriculture in the climate economy - FEED2011

Winrock Intl institute for agricultural development
John kadyszewski
Why operate a carbon offset registry?
Science is clear - action is needed
Markets are the best answer to respond to the unprecedented global changes

Food security is not negotiable
Earth needs to at least double the food production in the next 30 years

Future of agriculture:
yield matters
Improve genetics, best practices, reduce input

Future land use needs careful planning
Reduce pressure on biodiversity and forest
Agricultural intensification avoided 161 GtC from 1961 to 2005

1,514 million of additional ha would be necessary from 1961 to 2005
W/o additional yield during these years

Can carbon markets offer incentives for more efficient agriculture?

California
1st compliance period 25.8million for 2013-2014
But it would be 3x more for 2015-2017
Carbon offset markets can provide new sources of revenue to the grower

Seeking a green economy with agriculture
Carolina Dubeux, UFRJ

Green economy: Low carbon, natural resources optimization and socially fair

Practices for Green Economy:
Recuperation soil fertility
Crop rotation
Erosion reduction
Reduction herbicides and pesticide

Climate Center Study based on Stern Report and weather model UK
Considering 2oC (400ppmCO2)

Climate Change (CC) interactions and cost for the country (Brazil):
impact natural resources and forestry/agriculture and energy (lower efficiency - 30%)
healthy impacts, cities,

GDP w CC x normal scenario:

Losses under CC scenario: another Brazil 2010 GDP until 2050
30 bi U$

Agriculture:
Losses from 1.7 to 4.5% GDP
Food: until 2C some rising yield
5C scenario falling yields in many developed regions

Costs for Brazil to adapt to Climate Change and % yield reduction per crop
2050
Rice: reduction 12%
Cotton less 14%
Soya less 30%
Corn less 15%
Sugar cane yield improvement 139%

Solutions:
Genetic modification (adapt to weather), irrigation

Emissions in Brazil
Forestry 61%
Agriculture 19%

Opportunities:
No-till
Pasture recuperation
Integration agric forestry pasture
Low carbon agriculture
nitrogen fixation (0.5 U$/ton Co2 eq)

Green jobs - Peter Pschen, Job creation and sustainable enterprise department at the Intl Labour Organization
1/3 in the world work for agriculture
Today: 50 millions de refugees in the agriculture due to cc
Bangladesh, Haiti, Etiopia
Haiti last October losses 15% of GDP
Intl reports:
Stern review, IPCC, McKinsey:
cc biggest challenge to reach millennium goals
Challenge for all

Green jobs and development: 20 countries

Jobs Changes to
Less energy, less emissions

it's not an option: we need stop CC and integrate poorest in the economy
High potential:
Energy efficient, environment services, agriculture and forest sustainable

Green jobs in Brazil:
2.5Mi (6.7%)
increasing more than Business as usual market

Agriculture:
>1bi workers
Main focus: poorest
Agr Directly 13% emissions, linked to forestry emissions, water, erosion
More yield need to be done w/o more inputs

Food market increase 4-5%
Reduction emission

Challenges for agriculture in Brazil:
Keep low carbon impact yield
Help other sectors to reduce emissions (biofuels)
New jobs (2 Mi/yr)
Better workforce preparation (agribusiness, cane)

Stewardship related to herbicides and pesticides
4 MI workforce can't read and need to be better prepared

green and fair jobs = green jobs
Crucial is to invest in agriculture workforce in order to ensure the transformation